Wednesday, July 30, 2008

Head and Shoulders

A Head and Shoulders Bottom is considered a bullish signal. It indicates a possible reversal of the current downtrend into a new uptrend.

The first point - the left shoulder - occurs as the price of the financial instrument in a falling market hits a new low and then rises in a minor recovery. The second point - the head happens when prices fall from the high of the left shoulder to an even lower level and then rise again. The third point - the right shoulder - occurs when prices fall again but don't hit the low of the head. Prices then rise again once they have hit the low of the right shoulder. The lows of the shoulders are definitely higher than that of the head and, in a classic formation, are often roughly equal to one another.

The neckline is a key element of this pattern. The neckline is formed by drawing a line connecting the two high price points of the formation. The first high point occurs at the end of the left shoulder and beginning of the downtrend to the head. The second marks the end of the head and the beginning of the downturn to the right shoulder. The neckline usually points down in a Head and Shoulders Bottom, but on rare occasions can slope up.

How to trade this pattern?

Go long when the currency price CLOSES above the neckline and put a stop-loss below the last bottom (right shoulder).

Use a risk reward ratio. Better to calculate your profit target (if you risk 50 points, your target should be at least 75 points).

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